Key control:
-
Bitcoin’s risk signal fell to 23.7, the lowest since March 2019, indicating a low risk of correction and high probability or a developing bullish trend.
-
Despite the recent decrease in network activity, macro bullish indicators such as the macro chain index (DCL) suggest that Bitcoin could soon exceed $ 100,000.
On May 5, Bitcoin’s risk signal, an indicator that uses Ochain and exchange data to evaluate the risk of correction, fell to its lowest level (23.7) for the first time since March 27, 2019, when Bitcoin (BTC) negotiated at $. The signal is currently in the blue zone, what historical suggests a low risk of correction and a high probability of an upward trend. When the oscillator rises above 60 or turns red, it implies a high risk of bearish movement.
In 2019, the same signal preceded a rally of 1,550% internships that saw Bitcoin shooting over $ 68,000 in 2021.
Cryptoquant data indicates that the risk signal combines six metrics: volatility of disadvantage and upward, exchange inputs, financing rates, the open interest of futures and market capitalization. Collectively, they provide a balanced vision of the risk of correction, which makes the signal a data -oriented meter for market trends.
The last time the risk signal indicated a low -risk investment environment, Bitcoin was valued at $ 4,000. Several factors can explain prices disparity.
The launch of contributing funds in the stock market (ETF) Spot Bitcoin in the US. In 2024 it opened the flood to institutional capital, increasing demand and stabilizing prices. In fact, ETFs and public companies now have 9% of Bitcoin’s supply.
🚨Latest: ETFs and public companies now have 9% of Bitcoin’s supply! Spot ETFS has 5.5% only 1 year after launch, while public companies such as the strategy have 3.5%. Institutional adoption is remodeling $ BTCMarket: Supply without mentality, changing dynamics. 👀👀
(H/T: @ecoinometry ) pic.twitter.com/ic892rvep2
– Cointelegraph Markets and Research (@Cointelegraphmt) May 3, 2025
Fidelity Digital Assets data indicated that Bitcoin’s volatility has a decree four times than those of capital indices, below triple digits volatility in its early years, as illustrated in the table below. Between 2019 and 2025, the annualized volatility of 1 year made fell by more than 80%.
This maturation market absorbs capital tickets with less price interruption. Therefore, the growing conventional adoption, regulatory clarity and the growing Bitcoin role as coverage against inflation have reinforced its value, establishing a higher price price compared to 2019.
Related: Bitcoin’s price forms two BTC futures gaps after negative premium coinbase
Bitcoin Flash Bullish Signals macro indicators
Cointelegraph recently reported that the macro chain index (MCI), a compound of metrics in the chain and macroconic, showed a purchase signal for the first time since 2022, when the market fund predicted precisely at $ 15500.
Historically, MCIS RSI Crossover has preceded mass demonstrations, such as the increase of more than 500% in 2019. Combined with the increase in future interest and favorable financing rates, the MCI suggests that Bitcoin could break $ 100,000 in the coming weeks.
Anonymous cryptofost Darkfost analyst said that the Bitcoin network activity index has decreased sharply, reflecting a reduced volume of transactions and less active daily directions since December 2024. The fall in UTXOS further indicates the reduction of block space, a pattern often seen in the bears markets.
However, the analyst explained that he does not confirm a bearish perspective. Macro indicators remain strongly optimistic, suggestion of this calm could be a strategic entry point for long -term investors.
Related: How much Bitcoin can buy Berkshire Hathaway?
This article does not contain advice or investment recommendations. Each investment and trade movement implies risk, and readers must carry out their own investigation by making a decision.
