In an almost unprecedented movement, the Trump administration directly with Iran on Saturday to hold denuclearzation conversations. Currently, Iran is accumulating enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon per month.
The previous administrations would never have dreamed of direct conversations with a state of Paria as they will go so early in a new administration. They would have favored a slower technocratic process of preliminary proposals, bosses and, above all, isolating the directors of any guilt in the event that the conversations failed.
No Trump. It never has much legs for the previous bureaucratic game. It is bored by conventions and processes. And as we saw after Saturday’s meeting, their instincts can be correct again.
AP
Trump’s message to Iran is simple. You have no letters. The walls are approaching. ABANDO YOUR NUCLEAR PROGRAM, OR THE AT THE OTHER.
For most observers, this seems to be the use of hard power, or her threat, some with a larger gun. Two United States strike forces, two American carriers, 18 warships, and 30% of our stealthy bombers fleet have moved to the region. Israel, who successful hit Iran in 20 locations in October 2024 and takes out most of Iran’s aerial defenses, has also been anxious for another strategic strike.
But what is missing most of the comment is the three -dimensional strategy that Trump seems to be using at the Global Chess Board.
Today’s headline is the use of hard power (air strikes), but the most important story can be a brilliant use of soft power that complements the threat of force that, if it is successful, will isolate Iran even more.
The story of this chess game begins, curiously, with the assembly negotiations in Ukraine. At this time, Trump is positioned to ensure a peace agreement that guarantees a soverety and security of Ukraine restructured with the “economic boots” of the United States in the field, despite the presentation of expected games of Vladimir Putin.
If Trump achieves this, he will allow the United States and the West to lift the oil sanctions to Russia and gradually reintegrate Russia in the western economy.
But there is a critical warning. “In return, Russia separates from Itan,” says the scholar and commentator Haviv Rettig Gur of this recently emerging strategy.
It has an abundant sense: Russia will obtain a lot economically from a striking with the West that a continuous faint military alliance with an Iranian regime that faces the dead men in which Iran confided mainly for their imperialist objectives in Syria and Iraq.
The United States could even more scoring the Iranian segment of the “Axis of autocrats” by sanctioning Iranian oil tankers that evade export sanctions and shipping oil to China. Correctly applied, sanctions could stop Iranian oil flow to China in days.
Israel could also destroy those oil tankers with limited air attacks. Russia now sells approximately half or its oil to China, and Roonnnne Energy Markets to Russia would also fulfill the purpose of promoting a gap between Russia and China.
On a parallel track, as Gur points out, Saudi Arabia wants a security defense pact with the Senate with the United States, along with an Israeli economic association to advance its vision goals to move away the Saudi economy of the oil exexes.
The Saudi want this security agreement enough to promise investments worth Trump $ 1.4 billion in the next four years. The moderate Arab states surely see a better future here, and there lies the real possibility, if not the tankeli hood, or a deep, pro-western reform and pro-peace of the Middle East.
Does this mean that American and naval air in the region are only for the show? Not by any means. It is still a necessary club.
They would sponsored genocidal attacks against innocent Israeli civilians through Hamas, Hezbollah and the hutis and launched missile attacks against Israel in April and October or 2024.
There is no law of the wars that Israel cannot respond by eliminating the nuclear, energy, shipping and drone operations of Iran, partly if disarmament speaks with Iran fail.
Israel has military power, agility and the ability to attack on its own if Trump gives green light, which will certainly do it if negotiations fail. The fears of an Israeli attack in the energy sector of Iran and its impact on the global economy are very exaggerated; Almost all 1.6 million barrels from Iran a day of exports go to a buyer: China.
If Iran wants peace, then the Trump administration should not only in complete and verifiable denuclearization, but also that Iran’s substitute armies leave their arms. Iran knows that it is a paper tiger, despised by 80% of its own people, sitting in a failed economy and considered by the rest of the world as a genocidal obsolete jihadist.
However, it is not necessary to shoot a shot if the regime accepts true peace and disarmament.
And regardless of the success of the conversations, it is likely that a greater change will be underway, given Trump’s rejection of the failed obama/biden appeasement strategy and his vision for a regional reform.
If Trump can break the axis of the autocrats and pave the way for a new pro-western alliance with Saudi Arabia, Israel and the many other Arab states that would buy futures in this vision vision of the future, then we have made witnesses witnesses of witnesses to the load of the load. Seen in our lives (are you listening, Nobel Committee?).
